Formula notes and scoring logic
The model uses deterministic arithmetic: expected value, reward-to-risk, portfolio risk, cost drag, data completeness, catalyst/expiration pressure, and liquidity. It does not invent probabilities or market data.
| Metric | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Expected value | Probability-weighted reward minus probability-weighted loss and costs, when probability is entered. |
| Portfolio risk | Maximum loss or collateral compared with account size and buying power. |
| Data confidence | Penalty when key inputs such as probability, volatility, liquidity, or exit rules are weak or missing. |
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